Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 1.921496 2.030623 2.144976 2.274143 2.416480 2.569108 2.745901
2025-09-07 1.767829 1.920475 2.087954 2.286827 2.518521 2.782452 3.109573
2025-09-14 1.644232 1.817905 2.014210 2.255229 2.547044 2.894219 3.346942
2025-09-21 1.547771 1.734146 1.949649 2.221229 2.560334 2.978466 3.547859
2025-09-28 1.465466 1.659377 1.887716 2.181665 2.558241 3.036966 3.714167
2025-10-05 1.430333 1.637513 1.886188 2.213664 2.645056 3.212397 4.050717
2025-10-12 1.400804 1.619722 1.887099 2.246674 2.732967 3.393805 4.413603
2025-10-19 1.371605 1.600050 1.883447 2.271912 2.810220 3.564783 4.779621
2025-10-26 1.330633 1.563095 1.855058 2.261436 2.835836 3.661993 5.041102
2025-11-02 1.292962 1.528427 1.827499 2.249662 2.857476 3.753272 5.302101
2025-11-09 1.253143 1.489193 1.791854 2.224219 2.856676 3.808877 5.507822
2025-11-16 1.215495 1.451285 1.756186 2.196489 2.849972 3.853485 5.698156
2025-11-23 1.189614 1.428455 1.740479 2.197034 2.886845 3.972648 6.046163
2025-11-30 1.169439 1.412414 1.733201 2.209047 2.941653 4.125779 6.484143
2025-12-07 1.136250 1.377658 1.698633 2.179174 2.928564 4.162260 6.693838
2025-12-14 1.104323 1.343586 1.663723 2.147014 2.909528 4.186194 6.880368
2025-12-21 1.072467 1.308676 1.626433 2.109569 2.879559 4.187901 7.018639
2025-12-28 1.064206 1.305757 1.634001 2.139857 2.961703 4.398618 7.665426
2026-01-04 1.056667 1.303459 1.642148 2.171084 3.047091 4.623920 8.401183
2026-01-11 1.047256 1.298161 1.645618 2.194948 3.121222 4.835444 9.159563
2026-01-18 1.028436 1.279060 1.628269 2.185044 3.135645 4.929649 9.628256
2026-01-25 1.010164 1.260233 1.610687 2.173910 3.146993 5.018399 10.105304
2026-02-01 0.989084 1.236892 1.585732 2.149843 3.133562 5.053930 10.433718